ሪፖርተር – ግንቦትና የማያቆመው የባህር በር ጥያቄ በኢትዮጵያ – በመንግሥቱ መስፍን

ወርኃ ግንቦት የቀድሞ ወታደራዊ አገዛዝ ከሥልጣን የወረደበትና አሁን አገሪቱን በመምራት ላይ የሚገኘው መንግሥት ወደ ሥልጣን የመጣበት በመሆኑ በየዓመቱ መታወስ ከጀመረ 23 ዓመታት ተቆጥረዋል፡፡

በእግርጥ በግንቦት ወር 1981 ኮሎኔል መንግሥቱ ኃይለ ማርያምን ከሥልጣን ለማወረድ ያሴሩ ከፍተኛ መኰንኖች የመፈንቅለ መንግሥት ያደረጉበት ጊዜም ነው፡፡ በዚሁ ወር በዓመቱ በጦር ፍርድ ቤት ሲታይ የከረመው የጄኔራሎቹ የመንግሥት ግልበጣ ወንጀል ‹‹መቋጫ›› አግኝቶ ሞት ተፈርዶባቸው በጭካኔ የተፈጸመበት ጊዜ መሆኑም አይዘነጋም፡፡ ለነገሩ መንግሥቱ ኃይለ ማርያም ቢሆኑም ሲፎክሩና ‹‹አይዞህ ግፋ›› ሲሉ ከርመው የኮበለሉት በዚሁ ወር በዕለተ 13 አይደል?

የዚህ ጽሑፍ ዓላማ ግን የግንቦትን ገድል መዘከር ወይም አገሪቱ ከግንቦት 1983 ዓ.ም. የሥርዓት ለውጥ ወዲህ ያስገኘችውን ውጤት መዘከር አይደለም፡፡ ይልቁንም በዚሁ ወቅት ኢትዮጵያ የባህር በር አልባ መሆኗን ደጋግመው የሚሞግቱ ወገኖችን ድምፅ ለማስተጋባት ይሞክራል፡፡ ጉዳዩ የኤርትራና የኢትዮጵያ መንግሥታት የተሟላ ሕዝበ ውሳኔ ባይባልም የፖለቲካ ውሳኔ የፈጠረው ክስተት ቢሆንም፣ ፋይሉን እንደተዘጋ መቁጠር እንደማይገባም ለማሳሰብ ነው፡፡

ለዘመናት የኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብና መንግሥታት የድንበራቸውን ጫፍ ቀይ ባህር አድርገው፣ በወደቡ ሲጠቀሙ በኖሩበት ሀብት ይቅርና ግብፅና ሱዳን ለሺሕ ዓመታት ሲገለገሉበት የኖሩትን ታላቁ ወንዝ እንኳን ዛሬ ለሌላ አዲስ ጥቅም እያዘጋጀነው አይደል?! ስለዚህ የኢትዮጵያን የባህር በር ጥያቄ ማንሳትም ሆነ ጮክ ብለው የሚናገሩ ዜጐችን ማዳመጥ የቀጣዩ ትውልድ የቤት ሥራ መሆኑ የሚቀር አይመስልም፡፡

የዓለም ሁለት ሦስተኛው ክፍል ውኃ (ውቅያኖስ) ከመሆኑ አንፃር በምድር ላይ የሚካሄዱ ብዙዎች ጉዞዎች የሚካሄዱት በባህር ላይ ነው፡፡ በተለይ ግዙፍ ምርቶችና ጥሬ ዕቃዎች፣ የግዙፍ ፕሮጀክት ግብዓቶች፣ የቴክኖሎጂ ዘመን አመጣሽና የጦር መሣሪያን የመሰሉ ከፍተኛ ጭነቶች ካለባህር ትራንስፖርት የአገሮችን ፍላጐት ለማሟላት አያስችሉም፡፡ የባህር ትራንስፖርት ሲታሰብ ደግሞ የወደብ ጉዳይ በቀዳሚነት የሚመጣና ወሳኙ ከፍታ ነጥብ ነው፡፡

ዛሬ ኢትዮጵያን በመሰለች ሰፊ አምራችና ሸማች ኃይል (በአጭር ጊዜ 100 ሚሊዮን የሚደርስ) ያላት አገር፣ ሰፊ መሬትና የመልማት አቅም ያላት ምድር ያለወደብ መኖር እንደሌለባት የሚከራከሩ አሉ፡፡ ይኼ ከኢኮኖሚ ፋይዳው አንፃር ሲታይ ብቻ ሳይሆን ለአገር ደኅንነት ዋስትናም ቢሆን እንደ ምሥራቅ አፍሪካ ላለ ቀጣና ወደብ ያለውን ወሳኝ አቅም ይጠቅሳሉ፡፡

‹‹አሰብ የማን ናት?›› በሚል የኢትዮጵያ የባህር በር ጥያቄን የዳሰሱት ዶ/ር ያዕቆብ ኃይለ ማርያም፣ ‹‹የኢትዮጵያ የወጪና የገቢ ንግድ የሚካሄደው አብዛኛው በባህር ላይ ሲሆን ኢትዮጵያ የኬንያ፣ የሱዳን፣ የጂቡቲ አንዳንዴም የሶማሊያ ወደቦችን ትጠቀማለች፡፡ ሆኖም የኢትዮጵያ ወደ ውጭ የምትልከውና ከውጭ የምታስገባው ጠቅላላ ንግድ 90 በመቶ በጂቡቲ ወደብ ነው፤›› ብለው አስቀምጠዋል፡፡ በእርግጥም ከቅርብ ጊዜ ወዲህ በኤሌክትሪክ ኃይል ሽያጭ፣ በመጠጥ ውኃ አቅርቦትና ጫትና ቡናን በመሳሰሉ የግብርና ምርቶች ግብይት ከጂቡቲ ጋር የገበያ ትስስሩ የተሻሻለ ቢመስልም፣ በየዓመቱ ከሦስት ቢሊዮን ዶላር በላይ ካፒታል ለጂቡቲ ወደብ ኪራይ የምትከፍል ብቸኛ አገር ኢትዮጵያ ነች፡፡

አሁን ጥያቄው ለምን ለወደብ 60 ቢሊዮን ብር በዓመት ከፈልን ወይም ለምን በጂቡቲ ወደብ ተጠቀምን አይደለም፡፡ ለምን የአሰብን ወደብ የባለቤትነት ጥያቄ ወደ ጐን ገፍተን እንዳላየና እንዳልሰማ በክርክር ነጥቡ ላይ አፈር እንደፋበታለን የሚለው ተጠየቅ ነው፡፡ የታሪክ ድርሳናት እንደሚያስረዱት ከ100 እስከ 150 ዓ.ም. ባለው ጊዜ ውስጥ የኢትዮጵያ የባህር በር አዱሊስ መሆኑ ተገልጿል፡፡ እንዲያውም የወቅቱ ንጉሥ አፄ ካሌብ ባህር ተሻግሮ የመንና ደቡብ ዓረቢያን ይቆጣጠር እንደነበር “Christian Photography” የተሰኘ መጽሐፍ ላይ ተጠቅሷል፡፡

ከአፄ ዘርዓ ያዕቆብ (1434 እስከ 1468) ጀምሮ በተለያዩ ጊዜያት አገሪቱ የባህር በር እንደነበራት፣ በዘመነ መሳፍንት የማዕከላዊ መንግሥት መዳከም ምክንያት የውጭ ወራሪ ኃይል የባህር በር ይዞታዋ መዳከሙንም ከታሪክ እናነባለን፡፡ ያም ሆኖ በአፄ ባካፋ፣ በአፄ ኢያሱ፣ በአፄ ኢዮአስ (1720 እስከ 1770) ኢትዮጵያ በቀይ ባህር የተጠናከረ ይዞታ እንደነበራት ዶ/ር ተወልደ ትኩዕ ‹‹የኢትዮጵያ አንድነትና ኢጣሊያ›› በሚለው መጽሐፍ ዘርዝረውታል፡፡

እነዚህን የታሪክ እውነቶችን የዘነጉ ወይም ያልፈለጉ አንዳንድ ጥራዝ ነጠቆች ግን የኢትዮጵያ ታሪክ (በተለይም የሰሜን ኢትዮጵያን) እውነተኛ ዕድሜ ሊያሳጥሩት ይሻሉ፡፡ ‹‹ኤርትራ›› የሚለው ስም በኢጣሊያ ወራሪ ኃይል በ1890 ገደማ መውጣቱ እየተዘነጋም፣ የሁለት ዓለም ሰዎች ያህል ተለጥጦ ይነገራል፡፡ ምንም ተባለ ምን የምፅዋ (ሰሜን ኤርትራ) ቢቀር የአሰብ ወደብ የኢትዮጵያ ንብረት መሆን እስከ ደርግ መውደቂያ ባለው 40 ዓመት ባለቤትነት ብቻ ሳይሆን በታሪክ፣ በጂኦግራፊና በሕግ የኢትዮጵያ ሀብት መሆኑ ነው በብዙዎች የሚነገረው፡፡

እዚህ ላይ አንድ የማይካደው እውነት ኢሕአዴግ መራሹ የአገሪቱ መንግሥት ከኤርትራ መንግሥት (ሻዕቢያ) ጋር በነበረው የበረሃ ስምምነት ወደ ወደብ ጥያቄም ሆነ በአንድ ላይ እነኑር ውዝግብ ላለመግባት የወሰነ መሆኑ ነው፡፡ በእርግጥም በሥርዓቱ ውስጥ በነባር ታጋይነት የሚጠቀሱት እነአብርሃም ያየህና አረጋዊ በርሄ የመሰሉ ታጋዮች አንዱ ልዩነታቸው ከኤርትራ በተለይም ከአሰብ ወደብ ጋር በተያያዘ ኢሕአዴግ በያዘው ለዘብተኛ አቋም ነው፡፡ በ1993 ዓ.ም. በሕወሓት ውስጥ በተፈጠረው ልዩነት ምክንያት ከአየር ኃይል አዛዥነት ኃላፊነታቸው የተነሱት ሜጀር ጄኔራል አበበ ተክለ ሃይማኖት “Ethiopia’s Sovereign Right of Access to the Sea under International Law” የሚለው ጥናታቸው፣ ኢሕአዴግ በአሰብ ጉዳይ ላይ የያዘውን አቋም ክፉኛ መተቸታቸው ፋይሉ ገና ያልተዘጋና የቀጣዩ ትውልድ የቤት ሥራ መሆኑን ያመለክታል፡፡

ቀደም ሲል የተጠቀሱት ዶ/ር ያዕቆብን ጨምሮ በርካታ የታሪክ ምሁራን በአሰብ ወደብ የኢትዮጵያን ንብረትነት ጉዳይ ዛሬም ድረስ በርካታ መጻሕፍትና ጥናቶችን ለንባብ አብቅተዋል፡፡ ብዙዎቹ ሰነዶች የሚመዟቸው የሕግ፣ የታሪክና የጂኦግራፊ እውነታዎች ታዲያ እጅግ በብዛት ስለጉዳዩ መናገር ከማይወደው የኢትዮጵያ መንግሥት ሐሳብ በላይ ሚዛን የሚደፉ ናቸው፡፡ ምናልባት ያልተዘጋውና ለጊዜው የተጋረደው የኢትዮጵያ የባህር በር ጥያቄ ዝምታ ውስጥ ያለው በሽግግር መንግሥቱ ምሥረታ ወቅት ፕሮፌሰር አሥራት ወልደየስ ላቀረቡት አሰብ የኢትዮጵያ ይዞታ ነች ጥያቄ፣ ፕሬዚዳንት ኢሳያስ አፈወርቄ የሰጡት መልስ ሊሆን ይችላል፡፡ ‹‹ታሪክና ሕግ የሚሉትን ዝባዝንኬ ለትምህርት ቤት ክፍል ይተውት፡፡ ይህ ፖለቲካዊ ጉዳይ በጦር ሜዳ ተፈትቷል፤›› ነበር ያሉት፡፡

‹‹ኢትዮጵያ በራሷ የሚተዳደርና የራሷ የሆነ ወደብ ያስፈልጋታል፤›› የሚሉ ተከራካሪዎች፣ የአሰብን ጉዳይ ደጋግመው ቢያነሱም መንግሥት እምብዛም ትኩረት የሰጠው አይመስልም፡፡ ይልቁንም በቀጣናው ከጐረቤት አገሮች ጋር የተጀመረው የኢኮኖሚ ትስስር በሁሉም አቅጣጫ ወደቦችን ለመጠቀም እንደሚያስችል ያስረዳል፡፡ ምን ጊዜም ‹‹ሰጥቶ መቀበል›› ላይ የተመሠረተውና በጋራ ዕድገት ላይ የሚገነባው የውጭ ግንኙነት ፖሊሲ እስከተከተልን ድረስ ምንም አንሆንም የሚል መስሏል፡፡

የአዲስ አበባ ዩኒቨርሲቲ የድኅረ ምረቃ ዕጩ ተመራቂው ፍሰሐ (የአባታቸው ስም አልተጠቀሰም) ግን ከዚህ የተለየ ሐሳብ ያንፀባርቃሉ፡፡ ‹‹ኢሕአዴግ በበረሃ ስምምነቱ ለተከታታይ ዓመታት የቀጠለውን የእርስ በርስ ጦርነትና ስደትን ባለመፈለግም ሆነ በተለየ ምክንያት የባህር በር ጥያቄውን ከፊት ለፊት ማምጣት አልፈለገም፡፡ በመሠረቱ በወቅቱ የተዳከመውንና ብዝኃነት ያለውን ሕዝብ ማስተዳደርና ኢትዮጵያ እንደ አገር እንድትቀጥል ቅድሚያ መስጠቱ ተገቢ ይሆናል፤›› ይላሉ፡፡ አስገራሚው ነገር ግን ከኤርትራ ግጭት በኋላ በድንበር ማካለሉ ዓለም አቀፍ ድርድር ላይ እንኳን የአሰብን ጉዳይ ‹‹ውሾን ያነሳ ውሾ!›› እንዲሉ በቸልታ መታለፉ እንደሆነም ምሁሩ ያስረዳሉ፡፡

ለአንድ አገር ዕድገትም ሆነ ድህነት የወደብ ባለቤትነት አስፈላጊነት በሳይንስም የተረጋገጠ ነው፡፡ ዶ/ር ያዕቆብ በመጽሐፋቸው፣ ‹‹በ2008 ዓ.ም. በዓለም 44 ወደብ አልባ አገሮች ሲኖሩ ከእነዚህ ውስጥ 31 ያህሉ ደሃ ሲሆኑ፣ አሥራ ሦስቱ ደግሞ የደሃ ደሃ የሚባሉ ናቸው፡፡ ኢትዮጵያን ጨምሮ እነዚህ ደሃ አገሮችም ሁሉም በአፍሪካ ውስጥ የሚገኙ ናቸው፡፡ እነዚህ ወደብ አልባ ደሃ አገሮች ወደ ውጭ የሚልኳቸው ምርቶቻቸው በአብዛኛው በአንድና በሁለት ሰብሎች ወይም በአንድና በሁለት የኢንዱስትሪ ውጤቶች ወይም ጥሬ ዕቃ የተወሰኑ ናቸው፡፡ ስለሆነም ከድህነተ የመላቀቅ ዕድላቸው በጣም የመነመነ መሆኑን ሊቃውንት ይናገራሉ፤›› በማለት የመጨረሻዎቹ ደሃ ቢሊዮኖች (The Bottom Billions) በሚለው መጽሐፋቸው ፖል ኮልየር የጻፉትን ጠቅሰዋል፡፡

ምሁሩ፣ ‹‹በዓለም በሕዝብ ቁጥር ትልቋ ወደብ አልባ አገር ሆነች፡፡ በተጨማሪም በኢትዮጵያ ድንበርና በባህሩ መካከል ያለው 60 ኪሎ ሜትር በዓለም በአንድ አገርና በባህሩ ያለው ርቀት በጣም አጭሩ ለመሆን በቃ፤›› ሲሉ በገጽ 46 ላይ ፀፀታቸውን መግለጻቸውም ይታያል፡፡

ዕጩ ተመራቂ ፍሰሐም የመጽሐፉን ሐሳብ ተጋርተው፣ ‹‹ወደብ አልባ አገሮች ከድህነት ሊወጡ ይችላሉ፡፡ በምንም ተዓምር ግን ብልፅግናን ለማረጋገጥ መቸገራቸው አይቀርም፤›› ይላሉ፡፡ በተለይ የነብር ኢኮኖሚ ዕድገት (Tiger Economic Development) እንዳስመዘገቡ የሚነገርላቸው እነኮሪያ፣ ታይዋን፣ ቻይና፣ ጃፓን ያሉት ከአንድም አራትና አምስት ግዙፍ ወደቦችና በርካታ የባህር በር ባለቤቶች ናቸው፡፡ እየገነኑ የመጡት የዓለም ኢኮኖሚ ፈጣን የሚባሉት ብራዚል፣ ቻይና፣ ህንድ፣ ሩሲያና ደቡብ አፍሪካ ዋነኛ የዓለም የወደብ ባለቤቶች መሆናቸው ሲታይ የኢትዮጵያን የመጪው ጊዜ ፈተና ያመለክታል፡፡

ኢሕአዴግ መራሹ መንግሥት ኢትዮጵያን ለዘመናት ሊያስተዳድርና ሊመራ አይችልም፡፡ በተለያዩ ትውልዶች ውስጥ በዲሞክራሲያዊ ምርጫ ሕዝቡ ዕውቅና እየሰጠው ይምራ ቢባል እንኳን፣ በአዳዲሶች ትውልድ የተዋቀረ ድርጅት መሆኑ ተፈጥሯዊ ነው፡፡ ኢሕአዴግ በዲሞክራሲያዊና በሰላማዊ ምርጫ ሥልጣኑን ቢያስረክብም፣ በአሁኑ ወቅት በተቃዋሚነት የተሠለፉ ብዙዎቹ ኃይሎች የባህር በር ጥያቄን እንደ ኢሕአዴግ ከጠረጴዛ ሥር እንደማያስቀምጡት እየገለጹ ነው፡፡ እዚህ ላይ ሁሌም መረሳት የሌለበት የባህር በር ጥያቄ ሲነሳ ሕጋዊ መንገዶች ከምንም ነገር በላይ ቀዳሚ መሆን አለባቸው፡፡ ኢትዮጵያዊ ታሪካዊ፣ ጂኦግራፊያዊና ሕጋዊ መብት አላት ሲባል የጦረኝነት አባዜ ሊወገድ ይገባል፡፡ ሕጋዊውን መብት በሕጋዊ መንገድ ለማስከበር መነሳት ቅድሚያ ሊሰጠው ይገባል፡፡

ሲጠቃለል ግንቦትን ስናስብ የኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብና የአገሪቱ መልካም ገጽታዎች በበጐ የሚጠቀሱበት አዲስ ጊዜ ተፈጥሯል፡፡ ነገር ግን የባህር በር ጥያቄን የመሰሉ የብሔራዊ አጀንዳ ቀዳሚ ጉዳዮች ሊዘነጉ የሚገባቸው አይደሉም፡፡ ይህ ሲባል ግን በወረራና የሌሎችን ሕጋዊ ጥቅም በመግፈፍ ሳይሆን፣ ሕጋዊና ታሪካዊ እንዲሁም ጂኦግራፊያዊ መብቶችን በመጠቀም ሊሆን ይገባል፡፡ ይህ ደግሞ የትውልዱ አደራ ነው፡፡ መሆንም አለበት፡፡

Cairo and Khartoum caught in the winds of the Ethiopian dam By Yasser Al-Hussain

Egyptian-Sudanese relations have yet to address any of the major points that are being discussed between the two countries today and this is primarily due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Sudan is greatly concerned that Egyptian officials believe that it is within the best interests of their country’s national security to prevent any dams from being built outside of their national borders. Meanwhile for Sudan, any agricultural development is directly tied to building more dams, particularly outside the Sudanese borders.


Water storage facilities in Sudan are not capable of housing the amounts of water resources that are needed to irrigate the vast amounts of agricultural planes in the country. Even when it comes to the question of Halayeb, an area of disputed land between the Egyptian and Sudanese border which is currently under Egyptian control much to the fear of the Sudanese, it is likely that Egypt will use this territory as a playing card with which it will place pressure on Sudan to give up some of its most basic water rights.

On the other hand, Egypt is worried about the possibility that Sudan will later affect its ability to control the Nile’s waters through a series of proposed dams both inside and outside Sudan. Sudanese officials are accusing Egypt of using this mentality against the Sudanese people as a means to control them in a way that completely ignores the possibility of reconciliation and only works in Egypt’s favour. In fact, if Sudan were to demand its share of the Nile’s water (approximately 10 billion cubic metres according to the Nile Waters Agreement signed in 1929) Egypt would view this as an act of aggression.

The Sudanese claim that the whereabouts of the original copy of this agreement is unknown. They also point to the fact that they signed this agreement while they were under a bilateral (British-Egyptian) occupation. They believe that the original copy of the agreement includes more Sudanese rights, which the Egyptians would like to keep hidden.

At the time that Sudan preferred not to participate in the Entebbe Convention, Egypt also expressed its reluctance to abide by the 1929 Nile Water agreement to the letter, despite the fact that abiding by this agreement would grant Sudan its full water rights. Moreover, the biggest danger of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is that it sets a precedent for other countries to go against Egypt’s will when it comes to controlling the Nile. Cairo has expressed its anger towards Ethiopia for not asking for their permission before beginning their vast project.

Facts and figures

85 per cent of the Nile’s water supply comes from the Blue Nile over a four-month period each year. The issue lies with the fact that most of the water supply does not come from Lake Tana in Ethiopia, which constitutes only seven per cent of the overall water supply collected from 40 tributaries.

Lake Tana is located approximately 1,890 metres above sea level in the Ethiopian plateau, giving it the advantage of generating electricity. The question of generating electricity affects the Nile more so in terms of regression as opposed to water supply. In fact, Sudan currently buys 100 megawatts of electricity from Ethiopia and is looking to buy more as more than 70 per cent of electricity in Sudan is generated through water supplies. Overall electricity production in Ethiopia exceeds 30,000 megawatts.

The overall decline in the Nile’s water supply greatly affects the amount of silt that is found in the water and Ethiopia’s overall control of water from the Blue Nile is limited because of this. One must keep in mind that the Renaissance Dam’s water capacity is a mere 74 billion cubic metres when compared to the Aswan dam’s 162 billion metres cubed. This means that approximately 14 billion cubic meters of water from the Renaissance Dam are customised to accommodate quantities of silt.

The depth of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia is approximately 1,400 metres, which means there is large potential to store water in Ethiopian not for agricultural irrigation purposes but for generating electricity because the plane is located in an area that experiences a lot of rainfall. Yet, the decline of the plateau makes it impossible to accommodate agricultural projects that are vast enough to accommodate the large amounts of water stored. It is expected that Ethiopia will consume a mere 1.5 billion metres cubed from the Blue Nile within 25 years and approximately 3.1 billion metres cubed in a hundred years.

Egypt initiated storing water supplies outside of its borders in Uganda and in Sudan in an area south of Khartoum. The Egyptian minister of irrigation recently announced Egypt’s intention to build a new dam in South Sudan for storage purposes. He also expressed Egypt’s intention to undergo a series of hydrological and hydraulic studies as well as the creation of survey maps of the lake and dam site. This was made possible thanks to geological, environmental and structural research, all of which Egypt intends to present at a workshop dedicated to their overall research on this matter.

Egypt has recently announced its initiative to plant more than 2.2 million acres of rice, which shows that the majority of Egypt’s projects focus on transferring the Nile’s waters outside the range of the Nile Basin (to Sinai). All of this affects the ecological balance in that it does not allocate enough drinking water but mostly focuses the water supply on agricultural projects that greatly affect the amount of water that is being exploited (by Egypt).

More than 123 billion metres cubed of water are stored in the High Dam, in Aswan, which far exceeds Egypt’s share. Yet, the truth of the matter is that about 10.5 billion cubed metres of water are wasted at the High Dam and the Renaissance Dam is the only facility capable of storing water right now.

It is important to note that the Renaissance Dam would help prevent flooding in Sudan, particularly in Khartoum’s flat plane. The Renaissance Dam can help control the amount of water flow that occurs throughout the autumn. Moreover, when Sudan signed the Nile Water agreement on November 8, 1959, the goal behind it was to control the flow of the Nile in a way that would be most beneficial. This gave Egypt the opportunity to build the High Dam in Aswan, which later resulted in the creation of an artificial lake that would extend 600 kilometres passed the Sudanese borders. Its waters flooded Wadi Halfa and other neighbouring villages. Eventually, water levels dropped leaving about 140,000 acres of land in Sudan suitable for agriculture due to the high deposits of silt on them.

Egypt and the Nile countries

There have always been increasing calls for countries in the Nile Basin to reconsider past water agreements. Countries such as Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia have threatened to build dams that would reduce the amount of water flowing into Egypt unless it agreed to revise and amend water agreements to suit today’s needs.

Fortunately, none of these threats have been carried out for the most part and this is due to Cairo’s attempts to calm the situation through artistic, technical and economic cooperation that provided assistance to these countries. However, 11 of the Nile Basin’s countries, with the exception of Sudan and Egypt, have signed the Entebbe Agreement, which is seen as the “equitable and reasonable” alternative to the Nile Basin Initiative because it would redistribute water in fair quotas.

Apparently, Egypt is not only fighting its battle over the Renaissance Dam through Ethiopia and Sudan exclusively, but it has also attempted to win over other African countries. These efforts have been in effect since the beginning of Hosni Mubarak’s rule. Further investigation on the matter revealed that the Egyptian government has issued more than $4 million in bribes to three African presidents in an effort to convince them to sway their governments’ positions on the Renaissance Dam. Since the file was listed under matters of national security, the identities of the three leaders were not revealed.

In the state of South Sudan a group of rebels associated with the former Vice President Riek Machar accused the Egyptian government of supporting former President Salva Kiir in the civil war that took place in Juba. It is said that the military support given to Kiir came in exchange for his support for Cairo’s position regarding the dam in Ethiopia and plans even point to Kiir’s intention to divert water to Egypt from the Upper Nile.

It is important to note that Juba has already demanded its share of water from the Nile that was allocated to Sudan. This is estimated at 18.5 million cubic metres as per the Nile Basin Initiative agreements that were signed in 1929 and 1959. However, after the separation of South and North Sudan, Juba was not given a specified share of water from the Nile.

A source of Egypt’s concern is that the Entebbe Agreement replaces the Nile Basin Initiative and it outlines each country’s share in loose terms and supposedly divides water supplies depending on each state’s individual concerns and needs. Yet, the agreement will distribute water in a way that remains “fair and equitable” and this is the very thing that Egypt considers to be a threat because it currently enjoys more than its fair share of the Nile’s resources due to the current agreement. Thus, Egypt has taken a clear and firm decision not to sign the new agreement unless “it is guaranteed its full share of water from the Nile”, the former Minister of Irrigation said.

Solution and salvation on the horizon

Whether it is in regard to the Millennium Dam or the Entebbe Convention, it is not in Sudan or Egypt’s best interest to remain as they are, in a position that counters the rest of the African countries with which they share the Nile’s tributaries and basin. Their current position is somewhat controversial.

As of now, six out of the nine Nile basin countries have signed the agreement and they are: Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and South Sudan. The critical question here is: can Egypt afford to engage in an active war that not only confronts all of these countries but also threatens its water security? At the end of the day, the question of water supply is a life or death issue that would place Egypt’s wellbeing in jeopardy. This potential war is considered by many to be a strategic mistake on many fronts.

In my opinion, the Entebbe Convention is the first solution to calming this situation and on the other front the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is needed for the time being.

It is Egypt’s responsibility to avoid threatening other countries with military force for every year since the Khedive’s rule, they have devised a new military strategy to intervene should their interests in the Nile and its waters be threatened or jeopardised. At the end of the day, Egypt does not want to enter into any conflicts, whether technical or economic, with the African countries of the Nile Basin because this war will undoubtedly go beyond the African dimension.

The Sudanese government has often criticised Egypt for its position concerning the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and they have expressed that it is not an issue for Khartoum. The Sudanese government has also expressed their desire to remove this issue from its technical and governmental framework and has warned the Egyptian government that, should the relationship between Khartoum and Cairo be jeopardised over this matter, it will only open the door to bigger and more serious disagreements.

As for Ethiopia, it has stated that the Grand Renaissance Dam is 32 per cent complete and that they are ready for any confrontation from the Egyptian government. According to Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn his country is ready “to face all options and possibilities”. The only reasonable solution in this scenario would be to come up with an agreement between Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa that would be signed by a tripartite committee dedicated to solving this matter.

የኢትዮ-ኤርትራ የድንበር ጉዳይ ለምን አይቋጭም?

የለዘብተኞችና የእስስት” ፖለቲካ ልዩነት እየፈጠረ ነው

June 7, 2014 03:31 am By Editor Leave a Comment

መለስ በሁለቱ አገሮች ድንበር ላይ “የጅራፍ ድምጽ እንኳን አይሰማም” በማለት ሲመጻደቁበት የነበረው የኢትዮ-ኤርትራ ጦርነት በ”ወረራ” እና “ወረራን መቀልበስ” በሚል ድራማ ተጀምሮ ከተቋጨ አስራ አምስት ዓመት አልፎታል። ኢህአዴግና ሻዕቢያ ጉዳያቸውን በጠረጴዛ ዙሪያ ወይም በጡንቻ መቋጨት ያልቻሉበት ምክንያት ለብዙዎች እንቆቅልሽ ሆኖ እስካሁን አለ። ሁለቱም ወገኖች ድንበር ላይ ወታደር አፍስሰው መቀመጣቸውን አስመልከቶ “አውቀው ነው” ከሚለው ውሃ የማይቋጥር አስተያየት ጀምሮ በርካታ ጉዳዮች በገሃድና በሹክሹክታ ሲሰማ ቆይቷል።

የጎልጉል የዜና ምንጮች ሰሞኑን ከአዲስ አበባ የላኩት መረጃ ግን በይዘቱ የተለየ ነው። ይህንኑ አዲስ ጉዳይ የሚመለከታቸው ክፍሎች አስተያት እንዲሰጡበት ያደረግነው ሙከራ ባይሳካም ዜናው ለውይይት የሚጋብዝ በመሆኑ አትመነዋል።

የድንበር ውዝግቡ አንዲቋጭ ይፈለጋል?

የኢትዮ-ኤርትራ የድንበር ውዝግብ ጦርነት ከኢትዮጵያ ወገን ብቻ ከ100 ሺህ በላይ ጉዳዩ በውል ያልገባቸው ወገኖች ህይወት የተገበረበት ነው። የአይደር ትምህርት ቤት ህጻናትን ጨምሮ የበርካታ ሰላማዊ ዜጎችንና ህጻናትን ህይወትም ቀጥፎ አልፏል። አቶ መለስ ለዚህ ሁሉ ቀውስ ተጠያቂ ቢሆኑም በድንገት ተስፈንጥረው ፍርድ ቤት ህግ ሳይጠቀስባቸው አልፈዋል። “ታላቁ መሪ” በህይወት እያሉ በኤርትራ ጉዳይ በተፈጠረ አለመግባባት ትግራይ ውስጥ እስከመታገት ቢደርሱም ከጥንቃቄ ጉድለት በአንጋቾቻቸው ፈጥኖ ደራሽነት ተርፈው ተቃዋሚዎቻቸውን “ውህዳን” በማለት በየተራ አራግፈው ብቻቸውን “ውርስና ቅርስ” ለመሆን በቅተዋል።

አይደር

ከህንፍሽፍሽ፣ የልዩነት ጊዜ ጀምሮ አደባባይ የወጣው የልዩነት መሰረት በወቅቱ ይፋ ሲደርግ ኢትዮጵያውያንን አሳዝኖና አስቆጥቶ እንደነበር በወቅቱ በስፋት የተዘገበበት ጉዳይ ነው። ዛሬም ይህ ወቅት ዳግም እየተመለሰ እንደሆነ እየተሰማ ነው። “የኤርትራን ጉዳይ እንቋጭ” የሚሉ የከረረ አቋም ያላቸው ተነስተዋል። እነዚህ ወገኖች ሁለት አማራጭ በማቅረብ ሃሳባቸው ተግባራዊ ሊሆን እንደሚችልእየወተወቱ ነው።

የመጀመሪያው አሁን ያለው የመከላከያ አቅም የድንበሩን ውዝግብ በሃይል ለመቋጨት አቅም እንዳለው እየታመነ ለምን “ቸልተኛነት ተመረጠ” በሚል በቂ ጡንቻ ስለመገንባቱ አበክረው የሚከራከሩበት አግባብ ነው። ሁለተኛው ደግሞ “የኤርትራን ተቃዋሚዎች አደራጅተናል፤ ለምን እነሱ ወደ ኦፕሬሽን አይገቡም” የሚል እንደሆነመረጃዎቻችን ያስረዳሉ።

ቸልተኞቹ ምን ይላሉ?

በዚህ ጉዳይ ቸልተኛ የሚባሉት የተለየ ምክንያት ያላቸው፣ ነገር ግን “ጦርነት አያዋጣም” በሚል በገሃድ የሚከራከሩ ወገኖች ናቸው። እነዚህ ውስን የብአዴንና የህወሃት ቁልፍ ሰዎች በትግራይ ድንበር አካባቢ አስተዳደር የሚሰሩትን ጨምሮ የኤርትራ ደም አላቸው። በደህንነትና በጸጥታ ክፍሉ አጠቃላይ መዋቀር ላይ ቁልፍ ቦታ ተጎናጽፈዋል። የመረጃ ምንጮቹ ማብራሪያ እንደሚያመለክተው እነዚህ ወገኖች “ኢሳያስን የክፉ ቀን መጠባበቂያ” ነው የሚሏቸው። ሰዎቹ ኢህአዴግ ላይ አንዳችም አይነት ስጋት እንደማይሆኑ የሚታወቅ ሲሆን ዋና ዓላማቸው “ከመሃል አገር ወይም ከመካከል ለውጥ ካልተነሳ አርፈህ ተቀመጥ” የሚል ዓይነት መንገድ የሚከተሉ ናቸው።

ሃሳቡን ሲያብራሩ “ጉዳዩ ስትራቴጂክ ነው” በሚል ነው የሚጀምሩት። ኢትዮጵያዊነት ለሚያንገበግባቸው ህወሃቶች የማይገባቸው ይህ “ቁልፍ ስትራቴጂ” ለማመን የሚከብድ መረጃ ነው። እንደ መረጃው ምንጮች ከሆነ “የመሀሉ አገር ለለውጥ ከተነሳ የመጨረሻ መመሸጊያችን ኤርትራ ናት” የሚል ነው፡፡ እነዚህ የተቀላቀለ ደም ያላቸው ክፍሎች የሚያራምዱት “ቁልፍ” የተባለው ስትራቴጂ “የከፋ ቀን ከመጣ ወንድሞቻችን አይጥሉንም” የሚል ነው። ይህም ተግባራዊ የሚሆነው የቁርጥ ቀን ሲመጣ ለኢሳያስ የሚፈልጉትን በማድረግና በመስጠት ሰላም አውርዶ ህወሃት በገነባው ኢኮኖሚ አማካይነት የንግድ ትስስር መፍጠርና መኖር ነው። በኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ “በማንምና በምንም የማይገሰስ” የንግድ ኤምፓየር በመገንባት ኤርትራን በኢኮኖሚ ድቀት እንድትቀጥል የማድረጉ አካሄድ የ“ቁልፉ” ስትራቴጂ አንደኛው ግብዓት እንደሆነም ይነገራል፡፡

ኢሳያስን “አስልሎ መጣል” በሚለው መርህ ሻዕቢያን መጣል ከተቻለ ኢህአዴግ ያደራጃቸውን ተቃዋሚዎች በመያዝ የሚፈልገውን መንግስት ኤርትራ ላይ የመትከልና ከህወሃት ጋር ተዳቅለው የኖሩት የኤርትራ ደም ያላቸው የኤርትራ ተወላጆችን ወደ ግንባር ማምጣት ነው። በነዚህ ሁለት አማራጭ ሃሳቦች የተተከሉት ከላይ የተጠቀሱት ዓይነት “ለዘብተኞች” ይህንን ሃሳብ ይፋ አውጥተው መከራከርና ማሳመን ስለማይችሉ ጉዳዩ ውስጥ ውስጡን እየተብላላ ወደ ልዩነት እንዳያመራ ስጋት አለ። እነዚህ ስጋት የገባቸው ክፍሎች “ቁልፍ” የሚባለውን ስትራቴጂ “የህወሃት የለዘብተኞችና የእስስት ፖለቲካ” ሲሉ ይጠሩታል።

ከኤርትራና ከኢትዮጵያ የሚንደረደሩ ኃይሎች

ህወሃት/ኢህአዴግና ሻዕቢያ/ኤርትራ አንዱ የሌላውን ተቃዋሚ በይፋ በመደገፍ ሃይል ማደራጀት ከጀመሩ ቆይተዋል። ከሁለቱም ወገን ከፍተኛ የሚባል ሃይል ያላቸው የተቃዋሚ ክፍሎች፣ ድርጅቶች፣ ፓርቲዎች አሏቸው በሚባለው ሃይል ተጠቅመው አንዱ ሌላውን በማጥቃት ነጻ መሬት እስካሁን መያዝ አልቻሉም። ከዚህም ከዚያም ከሚሰሙት መጠነኛ የጦርነት ሪፖርቶች ውጪ ተለቅ ያለ ድል ስለመገኘቱ ከሁሉም ወገን አልተሰማም። ሰፊ ሃይል አለው የሚባለው ደሚትም ሆነ ኤርትራ ላይ መሳሪያ አነሳ የሚባለው የአፋር ቀይ ባህርና ኩናማ ንቅናቄ ስለ ሃይል ግንባታ ከመናገር ውጪ ይህ ነው የሚባል ድል እስካሁን አልጨበጡም።

ምንም እንኳን ጥንቃቄና ማስተዋል የሚጠይቅ ቢሆንም ከኤርትራ የሚንደረደሩት የኢትዮጵያ ተቃዋሚ ሃይሎች፣ ከኢትዮጵያ ይወናጨፋሉ የተባሉት የኤርትራ ተቃዋሚዎች ወደ ተግባር ሳይገቡ ጊዜ መፍጀታቸው “ቁልፍ” የተባለው ስትራቴጂ ሊመረመር የሚገባው እንደሆነ አመላካች እንደሆነ የመረጃው ምንጮች ይጠቁማሉ። የኤርትራ ተቃዋሚዎች አዲስ አበባ ላይ የሽግግር መንግስት አቋቁመው፣ መሪያቸውን ሰይመው፣ ህገ መንግሰት አዘጋጅተው፣ ሽግግር ወቅት መተዳደሪያ አርቅቀው፣ የሃይማኖትና የሲቪክ ተቋማትን አካትተው በዝግጅት ላይ እንዲቀመጡ መደረጉ፣ ምናልባትም በኢህአዴግ በኩል ያለው ዝግጅት “ቸልተኛ” በሚባሉት “እስስት ፖለቲከኞች” ታልሞና ታቅዶ የሚከናወን ስለመሆኑ አመላካች አይመስልም? በኢትዮጵያ ወገን ግን ተቃዋሚዎች “እኔ በጠራሁት ሰልፍ ላይ አትገኝም” እየተባባሉ እርስበርስ እየተቆራቆሱ፣ በገጽ ብዛት ብቻ የሚለያይ ተመሳሳይ ማኒፌስቶና ፕሮግራም ይዘው ትግሉን የርስ በርስ አድርገውታል። ከኢትዮጵያ ውጪ ያሉትም በመቀዳደምና በመጠላለፍ ፖለቲካው ተክነውበት የኢትዮጵያ ነጻነት ያደላደሉትን መደብ የሚያፈርስባቸው ይመስል አትላንቲክን ማቋረጥ አስግቷቸዋል፡፡ ሁሉም “እስስት ፖለቲከኛ” መሆን አልቻሉም። የአብዛኛዎቹ የትግል ሁሉ መጀመሪያና መጨረሻ “የምትታገለውን ዋና ባላንጣ ትተህ ያንተው ቢጤውን በመቃረን ዕድሜህን አርዝም” የሚል ያልተጻፈ የፖለቲካ ፕሮግራም፣ የጸና እምነትና ግብ ያላቸው ይመስላሉ።

Switzerland, thank you for granted resident status to Ethiopian Airlines Co-Pilot June 6, 2014

Ethiopian Current Affairs Discussion Forum (ECADF)

Your Excellency Mr. Marco Renna
Ministere Public de la Confederation
The Government of Switzerland

Dear your Excellency Mr. Renna:

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In the name of 90,000,000 voiceless, freedom lovers and Justice seekers of Ethiopians, we would like to express our heartfelt appreciation and thanks to you, your government, the Swiss Federal office of Justice, and the Swiss people in general for standing by the rule of law and justice, rejecting the extradition of Ethiopian Airlines Co-pilot Hailemedhin Abera and granting him a stay in Switzerland. The Co-pilot diverted his own aircraft on February 17, 2014 and landed safely in Geneva while none of the 202 passengers and crew injured; and to that matter none of them notice the diversion.

Your Excellency:

Hailemedhin, wanted to let the world exactly know and pay attention to the brutality of the current regime, the gross human right violation and heinous crime being committed by the current regime of Ethiopia. Level of atrocity and human rights violation is beyond the limit of tolerance. That is what Hailemedhin wanted to testify, and the Swiss justice system understood very clearly and showed it in its action, we thank you for that. His message was and is clear; he did not do it to advance a better life of his own. He was one of the few privileged who had a good career with stable income to enable him live luxuries life in a country where about 40% of the population live under poverty line. But the suffering of his fellow citizens, mass arrest and torture of journalists, human right defenders, and political leader under fabricated crime, disappearance of citizens without explanation, the regimes impunity towards his critics, would not allow him to sit and see. He did it in a way that international community would understand.

Your Excellency:

In current Ethiopia, under the rule of Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), freedom of belief and creed are violated, freedom of expression is jeopardized, critical opinion against the regime is not tolerated, poor farmers are forcefully being evicted from their ancestral land and left to die in bushes, government sponsored ethnic based skirmish are threatening regional stability, and the list goes on. This is a known fact by Western governments but they are deliberately avoiding from holding the dictatorial regime accountable. The Ethiopian situation is very volatile and fragile, if Ethiopia falls into chaos, the whole region will follow, that is what Hailemedhin wanted to portray in his action. Otherwise, he had countless opportunities to seek asylum be it in the United States of America, Canada or Europe.

Your Excellency:

Hailemedhin action was a call to freedom loving countries like Switzerland to listen to the plight of the Ethiopian people. Switzerland listened to his call and rejected the regimes quest for his extradition. We urge the Swiss government to listen to the main call of Hailemedhin and discontinue any association with the current regime of Ethiopia and be exemplary to the rest of the world.

At this juncture, we would like to bring to your attention that the people of Ethiopia are reaching the point of no return. If the present level of atrocities and terror continues by the dictatorial regime and the silence of western governments to the plight of the people, the brutality and abuse of this tyrant regime will continue. We are afraid that the situation could be out of control. This regime has prepared enough recipes that would lead the international community to witness another Rwanda.

Once again, we thank on behalf of 90,000,000 Ethiopians for standing by the rules of law, justice, democracy, human rights and for granting Hailemedhin Abera a stay in Switzerland. We also hope Switzerland will grant him a refugee status.

God Bless You and the peace loving People of Switzerland.

Religions institutions told to fund ANDM’s Office

Churches found in the Kewet Woreda, Shewarobit, North Central Ethiopia, have been

ordered to pay 1500 birr each for the construction of the office of the Amhara National

Democratic Movement (ANDM), a member party of the EPRDF. The administrators have

also told ESAT that they have already lodged the money.

Although religious institutions are legally independent from politics, what is being practically

seen in reality is the opposite of this, the unnamed administrators said. They said they have

given the money to the government fearing retributions.

Some civil servants in the town also said that they have been forced to contribute finance

towards the building of the Office.

Similarly, some residents of the region are also being ordered to pay 50 birr each towards

the construction of the Meles Foundation, being built in the name of the late Premier, Meles

Zenzwi. Farmers are also being chastised to pay for the Foundation whenever they go to pay

taxes to the local authorities.

It is to be recalled that delaying the fertiliser payment deadline of farmers’ has been

mentioned as one of the election winning strategies of the ruling Front in the next 2015

general election.

የአንድነት ፓርቲ እና መኢአድ ቅድመ ውህደት ፊርማ እሁድ ሰኔ 1 ቀን 2006 እንዲደረግ ተጠየቀ – በያሬድ አማረ፤ ፍኖተ ነፃነት

የመላው ኢትዮጵያ አንድነት ድርጅት (መኢአድ) በውህደት ጉዳይ ከአንድነት ለዲሞክራሲና ለፍትህ ፓርቲ (አንድነት) ጋር ሲደረግ የነበረው ውይይት በመጠናቀቁና ሁለቱ ፓርቲዎች ያለምንም ቅድመ ሁኔታ ስምምነት ላይ በመድረሳቸው ምክንያት የቅድመ ውህደት ፊርማ ስነ-ስርዓት ሰኔ 1 ቀን 2006 ዓ.ም እንዲደረግ መወሰኑን የሚገልፅ ደብዳቤ ለአንድነት ለዲሞክራሲና ለፍትህ ፓርቲ (አንድነት) መላኩን የመኢአድ ህዝብ ግንኙነት ኃላፊ አቶ ተስፋሁን አለምነው ለፍኖተ ነፃነት ገልፀዋል፡፡ እንደ ኃላፊው ገለፃ የቅድመ ውህደት ፊርማ ስነ-ስርዓቱን የሚያስፈፅሙ ከመኢአድ የተወከሉ የኮሚቴ አባላትንም ጭምር ያሳወቁ መሆኑንና በቀጣዩ ሳምንት የሚደረገው የቅድመ ውህደት ፊርማ ስነ-ስርዓትን በማካሔድ በአጭር ግዜ ውስጥ ሁለቱ ፓርቲዎች ወደ አንድ ውህድ ፓርቲነት እንደሚጠቃለሉና በቀጣይ ትግሉን በአንድነት ለመምራት የሚያስችል ሁኔታን ይፈጥራል ብለዋል፡፡

Sudan denies mother sentenced to hang to be freed soon

Khartoum (AFP) – Sudan denied on Sunday a Christian Sudanese woman sentenced to hang for apostasy would be freed soon, saying quotes attributed to a foreign ministry official had been taken out of context.

Meriam Yahia Ibrahim Ishag was sentenced to death on May 15 under the Islamic sharia law that has been in place since 1983 and outlaws conversions under pain of death.

Abdullah al-Azraq, a foreign ministry under-secretary, told AFP and other media outlets on Saturday that Ishag “will be freed within days in line with legal procedure that will be taken by the judiciary and the ministry of justice.”

But the foreign ministry said the release of the 27-year-old, who gave birth to a baby girl in prison on Tuesday, depended on whether a court accepted an appeal request made by her defence team.

A ministry statement said Azraq actually told media on Saturday “that the defence team of the concerned citizen has appealed the verdict … and if the appeals court rules in her favour, she will be released.”

Azraq said “the government does not interfere in the work of the judiciary because it is an independent body,” the ministry added.

“Some media took what the undersecretary said out of context, changing the meaning of what he said.”

After Azraq’s comment Saturday, Ishag’s husband, Daniel Wani, told AFP he did not believe she would be freed.

“No one has contacted me and I don’t think it will happen. We have submitted an appeal but they have not looked at it yet, so how is it that they will release her?” he said.

Ishag’s lawyer Mohannad Mustapha had expressed doubts she would be released or that charges against her would be dropped.

“The only party who can do that is the appeals court but I am not sure that they have the full case file,” he said on Saturday.

Earlier this week, Mustapha said a hearing that was due to take place on Wednesday was postponed because the file was incomplete.

Ishag was born to a Muslim father but said during her trial she had never been a Muslim herself.

The court gave her three days to “recant” her faith and when she refused, Ishag was handed the death penalty and sentenced to 100 lashes for “adultery”.

Under Sudan’s interpretation of sharia, a Muslim woman cannot marry a non-Muslim man, and any such relationship is regarded as adulterous.

Her case sparked international condemnation, with British Prime Minister David Cameron denouncing the “barbaric” sentence.

Wani, a US citizen, visited Ishag and the baby on Thursday after being denied access earlier in the week and said that both were in good health.